How likely am I to have herpes ?

I think it is highly more likely that you have type 1 orally, showed no symptoms, and passed it to her this way. The man I was with, to his memory, has never had a cold sore, yet he has oral hsv. Of course this is just my opinion. Some people have hsv-2 and do not show symptoms. If I were you, I would not worry so much. It is not so much a matter of how you got it or gave it, but that proper treatment is received and it is determined which strain, 1 or 2, it actually is. Don't let yourself get down over this. You did not knowlingly pass this on to her. Accidents happen. Take care.